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Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa

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  • معلومة اضافية
    • Publisher Information:
      John WiIley & Sons LTD 2021-08-21
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      © 2021 The Authors. This work was partially supported by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) under the project “Prevencion de Riesgos de Inundaciones y Sequías en la Cuenca Internacional del Miño-Limia” Interreg-Poctep 2014–2020 (EU. INTERREG-POCTEP 2014-2020, 0034-RISC_ML_6_E) and by Xunta de Galicia under the project ED431C 2017/64-GRC (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva).
      The present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a nonsymmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions.
      European Commission
      Xunta de Galicia
      Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
      Fac. de Ciencias Físicas
      TRUE
      pub
    • الموضوع:
      52; Climate-change projections; Mortality risk; Heat-stress; Cosmo-CLM; Temperature; Summer; Impacts; Cordex; Waves; Population; Física atmosférica; 2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera; journal article
    • Availability:
      Open access content. Open access content
      Atribución 3.0 España
      https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
      open access
    • Note:
      application/pdf
      0899-8418
      English
    • Other Numbers:
      ESRCM oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/4519
      0899-8418
      10.1002/joc.7360
      1450551483
    • Contributing Source:
      REPOSITORIO E-PRINTS UNIVERSIDAD COMPLU
      From OAIster®, provided by the OCLC Cooperative.
    • الرقم المعرف:
      edsoai.on1450551483
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