نبذة مختصرة : The Indus Delta in Pakistan, one of the largest arid climate deltas, is experiencing severe ecological and geomorphological degradation due to climate change and unsustainable human activities. This study presents a multi-temporal assessment of critical environmental issues, including shoreline retreat, sediment flux reduction, sea-level rise, and vegetation loss, by utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and predictive modelling by integrating DSAS-based shoreline dynamics with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Suspended Sediment Index (NDSSI). Using Landsat 8 and 9 satellite datasets from 2013 to 2023, the study reveals alarming trends: the shoreline is retreating at an average rate of -24.1 m/year, with a net shoreline movement of -226.4 meters, indicating significant coastal erosion. Vegetation cover has plummeted by 55%, from 4,200.21 km² in 2013 to 1,879.20 km² in 2023, including a 20% loss in mangrove areas and a 33% decline in species diversity, threatening the delta's ecological integrity. Additionally, concentration has decreased by 25%, largely due to upstream dam construction and river diversions. Sea level projections indicate a rise of 25 cm by 2050, and vulnerability modeling predicts that a 10-meter storm surge could inundate 9,376 km² (71%) of the delta by 2070. These findings highlight a threshold where ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss undermine coastal resilience and socioeconomic sustainability. The study emphasizes the urgent need for integrated coastal zone management to rehabilitate mangrove ecosystems, restore sediment flows, and ensure sustainable freshwater governance. It provides a geospatial framework crucial for climate adaptation planning and policy development in one of South Asia’s most threatened delta systems.
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