Study on Short Term Temperature Forecast Model in Jiangxi Province based on LightGBM Machine Learning Algorithm

In order to achieve further improvement in the forecast accuracy of station temperatures and enhance the forecast capability for extreme temperatures， this study establishes a 24-hour national station daily maximum （minimum） temperature forecast model for Jiangxi Province based on the LightGBM machine-learning algorithm and the MOS forecast framework by using the surface observation data of 91 national stations in Jiangxi Province and the upper-air and surface forecast data of the ECMWF model from 2017 to 2019.The results of the 2020 evaluation show that the LightGBM model daily maximum （minimum） temperature forecast is consistent with the observed trend， and the annual average forecast is better than that of three numerical models， ECMWF， CMA-SH9 and CMA-GFS， two machine learning products， RF and SVM， and subjective revision products.In terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of forecast errors， the model's daily maximum （minimum） temperature forecast errors in winter and spring are slightly larger than those in summer and autumn； the daily maximum temperature forecast errors show the spatial distribution characteristics of "larger in the south and smaller in the north， and larger in the periphery than in the centre"， while the opposite is true for the daily minimum temperatures.In terms of important weather processes， the LightGBM model has the best prediction effect among the seven products in the high temperature process； in the strong cold air process， the LightGBM model is still better than the three numerical model products and the other two machine-learning models， but the prediction effect of the daily minimum temperature is not as good as that of the subjective revision products.After a simple empirical correction for the low-temperature forecast error in the strong cold air process， the model low-temperature forecast effect is close to that of the subjective revision product.The model significance analysis shows that the recent surface observation features also contribute to the model construction， and the results can be used as a reference for model improvement and temperature forecast product development.At present， the LightGBM model temperature forecast products have been applied to meteorological operations in Jiangxi Province.