Analyzing the Risk of Short-Term Losses in Free-Range Egg Production Using Commercial Data

Free-range egg production plays a key role in the global food system, and current market trends suggest that consumer demand for free-range eggs will continue to rise. Free-range egg production is susceptible to a wide range of factors, including climatic conditions, management practices, and disease presence. These factors can cause variability in the laying rate of a flock over time, leading to fluctuations in egg production. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the risk of short-term free-range egg production losses using data derived from a combination of sensing technologies and management activities. Production and environmental data were collected from a commercial farm comprising seven flocks of laying hens. The variables studied included laying rate, feed intake, water intake, solar radiation, humidity, precipitation, and indoor/outdoor temperature. These were processed into a set of aggregate features calculated across a 14-day moving window. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the association between the derived production and environmental features and the probability of a short-term drop in egg production, expressed through deviations in the laying rate on the day immediately following the data window. Odds ratios were used to express the relative risk of a production drop by comparing the features for window periods where production drops occur to the window periods where production drops did not occur. The results demonstrated that a range of data features based on the laying rate, feed intake, water intake, and indoor/outdoor temperatures all had significant associations with the odds of a production drop. Key findings from the study show that an increase in feed intake and laying rate measured across the 14-day data window were correlated with a lower risk of a sudden drop in egg production. Conversely, a low mean indoor temperature (x < 16.1 °C group), measured through environmental sensing data, was correlated with a higher risk of a sudden drop in egg ...