Three Simulation Models of Naval Air Defense

This paper appeared in the Proceedings of the 2005 International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, McLean, Virginia, USA. ; Naval air defense is a critical facility for ship survivability and has been subject of a number of studies. We investigate here three different approaches to modeling it with computer software. One approach focuses on the problems of information processing and communication for the air-defense team, and is good for analyzing its efficiency. Another approach focuses on the inference of the nature of observed tracks, and is based on the novel psychological theory of conceptual blending. A third approach uses an expert systems approach that can learn from experience and be more substantially automated than the other two approaches. Each approach has its own advantages: The first provides insights for organizing and managing air-defense personnel, the second provides insights into cognitive biases in analysis that should be examined during training, and the third suggests a way to mostly automate the air defense process to save money. This work suggests the value of multiple simulations of the same process when that process is important to understand. ; This work was supported in part by the Chief of Naval Operations, U.S. Navy, N61F22. The Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, San Diego, California funded LT Calfee's research through the SPAWAR Research Fellowship Program.