Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality

This study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To conduct a comparative analysis of mortality estimates, two classical models were employed: the Lee–Carter and the Renshaw–Haberman models. The analysis involved utilising actuarial tables and mortality models to quantify pandemic-induced excess deaths by calculating the disparity between these estimates. The proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive and clear understanding of the impact of the pandemic on mortality in Italy.