Shrinking cities in China:A long-term metropolitan perspective

The understanding of the magnitude of urban shrinkage remains limited across many regions and countries due to diverse and non-standardized definitions of ‘the city.’ This study introduces a refined approach based on international standards. A novel global OECD-standardized definition of so-called ‘functional urban areas’ is used to operationalize cities as metropolitan areas. Subsequently, shrinking cities of any size are identified in China throughout 1980–2020 and examined by distinct decades and regions. To this end, population-change is measured from gridded raster-data in over 1500 Chinese cities. Our results reveal that by 2020 roughly one-third of all observed cities in China had become a shrinking city. Our findings also point to a spreading ‘regional belt’ of shrinking cities, with shrinkage already covering nearly all regions. Furthermore, at the intra-city level, ‘doughnut-like shrinkage’ is evident from population loss taking place in urban cores and rarely only in commuting zones. These observations highlight the multi-scale spatial nature of urban shrinkage. Importantly, urban shrinkage has amplified over the 2010–2020 period. Our findings may inform policymakers who seek to formulate policies regarding asymmetries in urban development, and our relatively standardized empirical approach may serve to facilitate the trans-national sharing and synthesis of insights on shrinking cities.