Modelling of Ice Storms for Power Transmission Reliability Calculations

This paper describes a new technique of modelling adverse weather for power system reliability calculations. The reliability calculation is based on a Monte-Carlo technique where each scenario represents a certain weather situation with certain parameters. For each scenario a model of the adverse weather is needed and in this paper a model based on geographically moving winds and ice storms is developed. The benefit of this is that it is possible to estimatethe time difference between mean times to failure indifferent lines, not only the outage risk. For each scenario a weather impact model is also required, where the risk of transmission outage is connected to the weather situation.The here-developed model connects the direct wind impact with the integrating impact from the ice storm. The developed method is applied to a numerical example. ; QC 20111222