THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA: South African Journal of Economics Vol. 78:3 September 2010

This article explores the relationship between tourist arrivals and trade in South Africa. Two analyses were conducted - a panel data analysis, which included tourism and trade data of 40 countries with South Africa, and a time-series analysis that involved South Africa's main tourism and trade partners. Cointegration tests, Granger causality and Block exogeneity tests were used to investigate the nature of the relationship. The results of the panel data analysis show that for South Africa as a whole, there is indeed a long-term relationship between tourist arrivals and trade, and that bidirectional causality exists. The results for the country case studies are mixed, although the evidence is stronger for the hypothesis that tourism causes trade. JEL Classification: L83, F10