Item request has been placed! ×
Item request cannot be made. ×
loading  Processing Request

Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

Item request has been placed! ×
Item request cannot be made. ×
loading   Processing Request
  • معلومة اضافية
    • Contributors:
      Mégarbane, Bruno; Service de Réanimation Médicale et Toxicologique Hôpital Lariboisière; Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Hôpital Lariboisière-Fernand-Widal APHP; Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP); Optimisation thérapeutique en Neuropsychopharmacologie (OPTeN (UMR_S_1144 / U1144)); Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité); Université de Franche-Comté (UFC); Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté COMUE (UBFC); Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
    • بيانات النشر:
      Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
    • الموضوع:
      2021
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce.To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021.We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools.We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t1/2β) for each identified period.In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17-2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15-2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days < t1/2β < 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France.Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.
    • ISSN:
      1525-1497
      0884-8734
    • الرقم المعرف:
      10.1007/s11606-021-06953-9
    • Rights:
      Springer TDM
    • الرقم المعرف:
      edsair.doi.dedup.....336bc8c6ab5c743c39bd72a0f91a0f5b