Ex vivo HIV entry into blood CD4+ T cells does not predict heterosexual HIV acquisition in women

Background A blood-based assay that could quantify HIV susceptibility would be very valuable for HIV prevention research. Previously, we developed and validated an ex vivo, flow-based, HIV entry assay to assess genital HIV susceptibility in endocervical CD4+ T cells. Methods Here we assessed whether this tool could be used to predict HIV risk using blood-derived CD4+ T cells in a rigorously-blinded, nested case-control study using blood samples collected from high-risk, HIV-uninfected South African women enrolled in the CAPRISA 004 clinical trial. Cases, subsequently acquiring HIV were sampled prior to HIV infection and compared with controls, who remained HIV-uninfected. The primary endpoint was ex vivo entry of a CCR5-tropic HIV founder virus into blood CD4+ T cells. Secondary endpoints included HIV entry into CD4+ central (TCM) and effector (TEM) memory T cells, and into CD4+ T cell subsets expressing CCR5, CD69, CCR6, α4β1 or α4β7. Results Compared to bulk CD4+ T cells (4.9% virus entry), CD4+ T cells expressing CCR5, CCR6 or α4β1 and TEM were highly susceptible (15.5%, 8.8%, 8.2% and 10.8% entry, respectively, all p