Comprehensive analysis and quantitative assessment of land use/land cover dynamics in Wakiso and Kampala, Uganda: a multi-decadal remote sensing study

Aim of the studyThis study analyses LULC changes in Wakiso and Kampala districts from 1995 to 2024. Objectives include mapping LULC types, assessing changes, evaluating transitions among categories (agriculture, water, built-up areas, forests), and examining trends and drivers. It provides insights into the impacts of urbanization and agricultural expansion, offering practical implications for sustainable land management.Material and methodsLandsat images from 1995, 2010, and 2024 were used, sourced from NASA's Earth Explorer. January images minimized seasonal variation, and data were reprojected to UTM Zone 36N with WGS84. Pre-processing included corrections and haze reduction in ArcMap 10.4. Supervised classification used a False Colour Composite of blue, green, and red bands, with 2,500–3,000 pixels per LULC category sampled. Accuracy was assessed with Kappa statistics and overall accuracy, and NDVI and NDBI were calculated for vegetation and urban growth analysis.Results and conclusionsThe analysis showed significant land use changes: built-up areas increased by 163%, reducing vegetation cover by 30.7%. Agricultural land grew by 112.4%, while forest cover rose by 29.2%. NDVI trends revealed a vegetation density increase until 2010, then a slight decline by 2024 due to urban sprawl. NDBI showed substantial urban growth, stabilizing between 2010 and 2024. The study highlights the impact of urbanization and agricultural expansion in Wakiso and Kampala, emphasizing the need for sustainable land management to balance development and conservation.