Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation.

Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101249759 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1746-6148 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 17466148 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Vet Res Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, 2005-

Computer Simulation* ; Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus*; Cattle Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; Foot-and-Mouth Disease/*epidemiology; Animals ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/prevention & control ; Foot-and-Mouth Disease/prevention & control ; Monte Carlo Method ; Population Surveillance ; Risk Assessment ; Russia/epidemiology ; Vaccination/veterinary

Background: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia.
Results: After simulation by Monte Carlo, the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone (Surrounding the areas where no epidemic disease has occurred within the prescribed time limit, the construction of buffer areas is called surveillance zone.) of Russia was 1.29 × 10 ^- 6 . The probability that at least one FMD positive case was exported from Russia per year in the surveillance zone was 6 %. The predicted number of positive cattle of the 39,530 - 50,576 exported from Russia per year was 0.06. A key node in the impact model was the probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone. By semi-quantitative model calculation, the risk probability of FMD defense system defects was 1.84 × 10 ^- 5 , indicating that there was a potential risk in the prevention and control measures of FMD in Russia. The spatial time scan model found that the most likely FMD cluster (P < 0.01) was in the Eastern and Siberian Central regions.
Conclusions: There was a risk of FMDV among cattle exported from Russia, and the infection rate of cattle in the monitored area was the key factor. Understanding the export risk of FMD in Russia and relevant epidemic prevention measures will help policymakers to develop targeted surveillance plans.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)

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2016YFD0501101 the national key research and development program of china

Keywords: Defense measures; Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD); Monte Carlo simulations; Risk assessment; Spatial time scan statistic

Date Created: 20210811 Date Completed: 20211109 Latest Revision: 20211109

20250114

PMC8353819

10.1186/s12917-021-02967-x

34376207