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A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak.

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  • معلومة اضافية
    • المصدر:
      Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE
    • بيانات النشر:
      Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-
    • الموضوع:
      COVID-19/*epidemiology ; Data Science/*methods ; Pandemics/*prevention & control; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Geography ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Pandemics/statistics & numerical data ; Policy Making ; Preventive Medicine/standards ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Risk Factors ; SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity ; Time Factors
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which might help policy-makers to take informed decisions.
    • Comments:
      Erratum in: Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 28;11(1):15719. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94234-0. (PMID: 34321537)
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    • Grant Information:
      PRIN2017WZFTZP Università di Catania
    • الموضوع:
      Date Created: 20210306 Date Completed: 20210316 Latest Revision: 20240402
    • الموضوع:
      20250114
    • الرقم المعرف:
      PMC7935987
    • الرقم المعرف:
      10.1038/s41598-021-82310-4
    • الرقم المعرف:
      33674627