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Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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  • معلومة اضافية
    • Contributors:
      V Bhattacharjee, N; E Schumacher, A; Aali, A; Habtegiorgis Abate, Y; Abbasgholizadeh, R; Abbasian, M; Abbasi-Kangevari, M; Abbastabar, H; Abd ElHafeez, S; Abd-Elsalam, S; Abdollahi, M; Abdollahifar, M; Abdoun, M; Abdullahi, A; Abebe, M; Shawel Abebe, S; Abiodun, O; Abolhassani, H; Abolmaali, M; Abouzid, M; Beressa Aboye, G; Guimarães Abreu, L; Aberhe Abrha, W; M Abrigo, M; Abtahi, D; Abualruz, H; Abubakar, B; Abu-Gharbieh, E; Me Abu-Rmeileh, N; Girum Girum Adal, T; Molla Adane, M; Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo, O; Adesoji Adedoyin, R; Adekanmbi, V; Aden, B; Victor Adepoju, A; O Adetokunboh, O; Bunmi Adetunji, J; Adedayo Adeyinka, D; Israel Adeyomoye, O; Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Q; Adra, S; Felix Afolabi, R; Afyouni, S; Sohail Afzal, M; Afzal, S; Aghamiri, S; Agodi, A; Agyemang-Duah, W; Opoku Ahinkorah, B; J Ahlstrom, A; Ahmad, A; Ahmad, D; Ahmad, F; M Ahmad, M; Ahmad, S; Ahmad, T; Ahmed, A; Ahmed, H; A Ahmed, L; Saleh Ahmed, M; Anees Ahmed, S; Ajami, M; Aji, B; Taddesse Akalu, G; Akbarialiabad, H; Olusola Akinyemi, R; Ahmed Akkaif, M; Akkala, S; Al Hamad, H; Mahfuz Al Hasan, S; Al Qadire, M; Mohammed Ali Al-Ahdal, T; O Alalalmeh, S; A Alalwan, T; Al-Aly, Z; Alam, K; Mustafa Al-Amer, R; Mashhour Alanezi, F; M Alanzi, T; Albakri, A; Albashtawy, M; T AlBataineh, M; Alemi, H; Alemi, S; Mulugeta Alemu, Y; Al-Eyadhy, A; Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, A; F Alhabib, K; Alhajri, N; Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, F; Kaba Alhassan, R; Ali, A; Abdulqadir Ali, B; Ali, L; Usman Ali, M; Ali, R; Shujait Shujait Ali, S; Mohammad Alif, S
    • الموضوع:
      2024
    • Collection:
      Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca: BOA (Bicocca Open Archive)
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were ...
    • Relation:
      info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/38521087; journal:THE LANCET; https://hdl.handle.net/10281/469189
    • الرقم المعرف:
      10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6
    • Rights:
      info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
    • الرقم المعرف:
      edsbas.91C43258