Projecting Diversity Conflicts of Future Land System Pathways in China Under Anthropogenic and Climate Forcing.

Predicting future land system changes driven by anthropogenic and climactic impacts can help to explore adaptation and mitigation pathways for regional and global sustainable development. Here, we project land cover changes in China from 2030 to 2100 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km under eight scenarios based on the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenraioMIP), which are extracted from Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2). We use a rule‐based method to classify and map 9 land cover dynamic trajectories at patch scale to present land system changes. At the provincial scale we used hierarchical clustering to identify archetypes of land cover change, which can predict ecological risks for future management in western provinces. Our results reveal that anthropogenic mitigation policies under high mitigation pressure do not result in positive impacts on the land system, but rising temperatures will provide a great opportunity for ecological restoration in some regions. Plain Language Summary: Land plays a crucial role in human well‐being, but it is under threat from climate change and anthropogenic activities. In this study, we used computer models to predict how the land cover in China will change from 2030 to 2100 under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and climate policies. Our finding indicates that some climate policies may have negative effects on the land cover, such as cultivating natural areas into croplands for bioenergy production. On the other hand, some regions may benefit from warmer temperatures and more precipitation, which can help restore the natural ecosystems. Furthermore, our analysis revealed different patterns of land cover change across China's provinces, offering insights into ecological risks and potential opportunities for future land management strategies. Our study shows that we need to consider the impacts of climate policies on the land cover before implementing them and balance the trade‐offs between mitigation and adaptation goals. Key Points: Analyzing future land cover dynamic trajectories can help assess the impact of anthropogenic activity and climate change on land systemsAnthropogenic mitigation policies present more impacts on land systems than climate change in the 21st centuryThe negative impacts of climate mitigation policies must be considered carefully, especially the expansion of biomass cultivation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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