The economic benefits of targeted response strategies against foot-and-mouth disease in Australia.

Elsevier BV 2022-07

Recent developments in control of highly infectious diseases attempt to improve emergency response efforts by more clearly focusing or targeting response tools according to risk. For example, advances in surveillance testing and sampling deliver their results by more accurately and precisely targeting the population of interest. In this work, targeted implementation of trading zones and vaccination were examined for simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. Trading zones allowing unaffected Australian states to resume exports following an outbreak of FMD were assessed using multiple tools. A Victorian incursion scenario with traditional stamping out and vaccination as control options, was simulated using the AADIS model Version 2.47, to characterise the geographic extent of potential outbreaks, the number of animals infected, and the date of last cull indicating duration of the outbreak. Information on disease spread from the AADIS simulations was then used to identify the boundaries of trading zones for the incursion scenario, in which vaccination with trading zones was found to further reduce disease impacts relative to stamping out alone with trading zones. The number of animals culled due to disease provided supply shocks for stamping out alone and vaccinate-to-retain, while the number of vaccinated animals was added to the number of animals culled due to disease for the supply shock of vaccinate-to-remove. The day of last cull was combined with historical FMD trade recovery and Australian export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that would be embargoed under trading zones. The market impacts - changes in equilibrium quantities and prices - of the supply shock, trading zones, and consumer reactions - were simulated within ABARES' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. For this simulated large outbreak, where vaccinate-to-remove was utilised along with trading zones, producer losses were reduced by

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CC BY-NC-ND
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

UMV oai:jupiter.its.unimelb.edu.au:11343/300159
Seitzinger, A. H., Hafi, A., Addai, D., Garner, G., Bradhurst, R., Breed, A. C., Capon, T., Miller, C., Pinol, J. & Tapsuwan, S. (2022). The economic benefits of targeted response strategies against foot-and-mouth disease in Australia.. Prev Vet Med, 204, pp.105636-. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105636.
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105636
1873-1716
0167-5877
1315711982

UNIV OF MELBOURNE
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