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Bacille Calmette-Guérin Vaccination in Infancy Does Not Protect Against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Sweden.

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  • المؤلفون: de Chaisemartin, Clément; de Chaisemartin, Clément; de Chaisemartin, Luc
  • المصدر:
    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America; vol 72, iss 10, e501-e505; 1058-4838
  • نوع التسجيلة:
    Electronic Resource
  • الدخول الالكتروني :
    https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5325c8dj
    https://escholarship.org/
  • معلومة اضافية
    • Publisher Information:
      eScholarship, University of California 2021-05-01
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      BackgroundThe bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) tuberculosis vaccine has immunity benefits against respiratory infections. Accordingly, it has been hypothesized to have a protective effect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Recent research found that countries with universal BCG childhood vaccination policies tend to be less affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, such ecological studies are biased by numerous confounders. Instead, this paper reports on a rare nationwide natural experiment that occurred in Sweden in 1975, where discontinuation of newborns' BCG vaccination led to a dramatic decrease in BCG coverage rate, thus allowing us to estimate BCG's effect without the biases associated with cross-country comparisons.MethodsNumbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were recorded for birth cohorts born just before and just after 1975, representing 1 026 304 and 1 018 544 individuals, respectively. We used regression discontinuity to assess the effect of BCG vaccination on COVID-19-related outcomes. On such a large population, this method allows for a precision that would be hard to achieve using a randomized controlled trial.ResultsThe odds ratios (95% CI) for COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related hospitalizations were 1.0005 (.8130-1.1881) and 1.2046 (.7532-1.6560), allowing us to reject fairly modest effects of universal BCG vaccination. We can reject with 95% confidence that universal BCG vaccination reduces the number of cases by 19% and the number of hospitalizations by 25%.ConclusionsWhile the effect of a recent vaccination must be evaluated, we provide strong evidence that receiving the BCG vaccine at birth does not have a protective effect against COVID-19 among middle-aged individuals.
    • الموضوع:
    • Note:
      application/pdf
      Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America vol 72, iss 10, e501-e505 1058-4838
    • Other Numbers:
      CDLER oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5325c8dj
      qt5325c8dj
      https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5325c8dj
      https://escholarship.org/
      1287327562
    • Contributing Source:
      UC MASS DIGITIZATION
      From OAIster®, provided by the OCLC Cooperative.
    • الرقم المعرف:
      edsoai.on1287327562
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