Spatial effect of digital inclusive finance on agricultural carbon emission intensity and mechanism

[Objective] With the deepening of the digital economy, digital inclusive finance has become an important path for reducing the carbon emission intensity of agriculture. This study explored the relationship between digital inclusive finance and the carbon emission intensity of agriculture. [Methods] Starting from the spatial effects and influencing mechanisms, this study used digital inclusive finance and agricultural carbon emission intensity data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 and kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis of the characteristics of agricultural carbon emission intensity, the dynamic spatial Durbin model, and mediation effect models to analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural carbon emission intensity. [Results] The results show that: (1) The level of agricultural carbon emission intensity was continuously decreasing, with strong spatial heterogeneity and clear agglomeration characteristics, while the spatial pattern of digital inclusive finance and agricultural carbon emission intensity exhibited certain mismatch in their development. (2) Digital inclusive finance had a significant negative effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and the conclusion is robust based on endogeneity tests, sample exclusions, and policy effect tests. Broader coverage and higher level of digitalization of digital inclusive finance can significantly inhibit agricultural carbon emission intensity. (3) Digital inclusive finance affects the level of agricultural carbon emissions by influencing the level of agricultural technology innovation and entrepreneurial activities, and urbanization and marketization levels have significant moderating effects that can strengthen the carbon reduction effect of digital finance. [Conclusion] It is recommended to further optimize the organizational model of digital inclusive finance to support low-carbon agricultural development, strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure to stimulate agricultural innovation and entrepreneurship, and thus promote the development of low-carbon agriculture.