Comparative assessment of the prognostic value of mathematical models in determining the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus

Introduction. Early relevant is the early prediction of the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D), which allows to prevent the development of the disease and its complications. For the purpose of screening, scales for assessing the risk of its development based on the results of questionnaires are used, but at the moment there are no questionnaires against employees of law enforcement agencies professionally related to psycho-emotional stress.Aim. Assessment of the prognostic value of the original mathematical model of the VERADIV to assess the risk of developing T2D in comparison with the FINDRISC questionnaires and a DIARISK regarding the cohort of military personnel.Materials and methods. 212 subjects from among military personnel under a young and middle -aged contract with a waist of the a avyinary poles and a representative control group from among civilians (60 people) were selected for prospective cohort research. At the first stage of the study, anthropometric psychophysiological indicators were studied, as well as laboratory data aimed at assessing the state of the endocrine function of the pancreas and the degree of insulin resistance. After 3 years, the state of carbohydrate exchange of subjects with the assessment of factors that influenced the development of new cases of prediabetes and T2D was evaluated. Based on the data obtained, an index of the VERADIV was developed, avaluating the likelihood of risk of developing T2D among military personnel. The most important stage in the work was a comparative assessment of the prognostic value of the model of the FINDRISC verasa and the DIARISK, set forth in this article.Results and discussion. The mathematical model of predicting the risk of T2D, from the age, from the HOMA-IR index, allows the points of aggressiveness and volitional self -control in 91.9% of cases, correctly predict the absence of the development of T2D after 3 years, and during the same period the probability of manifestation of T2D – in 91.7% of cases. For cohorts of military personnel, the specificity and sensitivity of the FINDRISC questionnaire amounted to 69.5 and 75%, respectively. The specificity and sensitivity of the DIARISK questionnaire amounted to 75%.Conclusion. The results of the study indicate the importance of taking into account insulin resistance and psycho-emotional stress in assessing the risk of developing T2D among military personnel, which confirmed the high prognostic value of the vendiv scale.