نبذة مختصرة : The reliability of the tunnel lining during its service life has significance for tunnel safety management. To capture the performance of the lining under the effect of deterioration factors, the time-varying reliability theory was applied to predict the service life of the lining. The failure process of the lining structure under an erosion environment was analyzed. The limit state equations of the lining structure were established based on the durability criterion and the bearing capacity criterion, respectively. The time-varying reliability of the tunnel was calculated using the Monte-Carlo method with an engineering example, and the service life of the tunnel under different criteria was predicted based on the target reliability. The results show that the predicted service life of the tunnel is 77.5 years under the durability criterion and 95 years under the bearing capacity criterion, assuming that the tunnel structure is in an erosive environment at the beginning of construction and that no protective measures are taken under the most unfavourable conditions. The durability meets the structural applicability, and the bearing capacity meets the structural safety, which is in line with the actual needs of the project. The study results can provide a basis and reference for the future durability design, life prediction, and maintenance management of similar service tunnels.
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