Simulation of pharmaceutical supply chain resilience in Hebei Province: An impact factor-capability perspective

The production and supply of pharmaceuticals are critical to safeguarding public health and national security. Enhancing the resilience of the pharmaceutical supply chain is essential for mitigating uncertain pharmaceutical risks and maintaining social stability. This study focuses on the pharmaceutical supply chain in Hebei Province and, based on an impact factor-capability-resilience framework, develops an evaluation system for the resilience factors of the pharmaceutical supply chain in terms of tolerance capacity, recovery capacity, and risk resistance capacity. The study utilizes the system dynamics (SD) method to perform simulation analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the resilience of the pharmaceutical supply chain in Hebei Province is most influenced by risk tolerance capacity, followed by recovery capacity. Among the various influencing factors, supply chain risk tolerance capacity is predominantly affected by factors such as operating income, inventory, and social environment. Supply chain recovery capacity is primarily influenced by factors such as total profit and partner credibility, while supply chain risk resistance capacity is chiefly influenced by operating profit margin and logistics support level.