The VitiTerroir model to simulate the spatial dynamics of vineyards on the long term (1836-2014)

The VitiTerroir project ambitions to develop a model simulating spatial dynamics of vineyards in Centre-Val de Loire region, France. We study these dynamics in the long (several centuries), medium and short term, using historical sources (administrative surveys, field books, cadasters…). In this paper, we focus on the impact of four factors on the dynamics of vineyards in Touraine over two centuries (1808-2014): wine consumption, the geographical concentration of production, urban growth, and the phylloxera crisis. We want to explore their impacts on the vineyard’s areas of each municipality through four sub-models.By exploring every sub-model, we show that the evolution of the people’s consumption practices largely explains the evolution of vineyard areas for the majority of the municipalities (68 %). Moreover, we highlight the resilience of some vineyards (Vouvray, Chinon, Bourgueil) even if the phylloxera crisis has affected all the Touraine region in the 1880s. Finally, we show that urban growth, analyzed through demographic change, sometimes explains the decline of some major vineyards of the 19th century. However, it applies only to a minority of communities close to the city of Tours.Keywords: geohistory, spatial simulation, spatio-temporal dynamics, vineyard