نبذة مختصرة : Abstract Background Pathological complete response (pCR) is the goal of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of achieving pCR in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+), HER2-negative (HER2−) breast cancer patients. Methods A total of 273 ER+, HER2− breast cancer patients who received 4 cycles of thrice-weekly standard NACT in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the predictive factors to develop the nomograms. The discrimination and calibration abilities were assessed by the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plot. Results There were 28 patients (10.3%) with overall pCR, 38 patients (13.9%) with breast pCR after NACT. ER expression, PgR expression, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the Ki-67 index were independent predictive factors for achieving overall pCR. These indicators had good discrimination and calibration ability (AUC 0.843). The nomogram for breast pCR was established based on ER expression, PgR expression, the NLR, and the Ki-67 index and showed great discriminatory ability, with an AUC of 0.810. The calibration curve showed that the predictive ability of the nomogram was a good fit to actual observations. Conclusion The nomograms exhibited a sufficient discriminatory ability for predicting pCR after NACT in ER+, HER2− breast cancer patients. Utilizing these nomograms will enable us to identify patients at high probability for pCR after NACT and provide a reference for preoperative adjuvant therapy.
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