Predictive value of inflammatory factors and lymphocyte counts in tracheal intubation and death after infection with COVID-19

Abstract Objective This study aims to investigate the prognostic significance of inflammatory cytokines and lymphocyte levels in predicting disease progression among patients with COVID-19 infection. Methods Ninety-two hospitalized COVID-19 patients were retrospectively included as subjects for this study. General clinical information and various indicators, including lymphocyte count, interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), were collected. All patients received treatment according to the ninth edition of the guidelines for COVID-19. Incidences of endotracheal intubation and mortality within 28 days were observed. Results 1.In the analysis of intubation impact, multivariate analysis identified age, immunoglobulins, lymphocytes, and IL-6 as independent risk factors. When analyzing the impact on patient mortality, multivariate analysis revealed age, prealbumin, and BNP as independent risk factors. 2. Lymphocyte count and inflammatory factors demonstrated predictive value for endotracheal intubation in COVID-19 patients. The critical lymphocyte count value was 0.91, with a sensitivity of 38.8%, specificity of 92.9%, and AUC of 0.687 (95% CI: 0.580–0.795). The critical IL-6 value was 38.21, with a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 63.3%, and AUC of 0.771 (95% CI: 0.6670.872). The area under the ROC curve for IL-8, IL-10 and TNF is 0.665, 0.712 and 0.648, respectively. 3.Lymphocyte count and inflammatory factors also exhibited predictive value for death in COVID-19 patients. The critical lymphocyte count value was 0.56, with a sensitivity of 71.2%, specificity of 57.5%, and AUC of 0.641 (95% CI: 0.528–0.754). The critical IL-6 value was 53.05, with a sensitivity of 75%, specificity of 71.2%, and AUC of 0.770 (95% CI: 0.6690.870). The area under the ROC curve for IL-8, IL-10 and TNF is 0.687, 0.683 and 0.636, respectively. Conclusion Elevated inflammatory factors and decreased lymphocyte levels have prognostic value for predicting endotracheal intubation and mortality in COVID-19 patients, providing valuable insights for clinicians in anticipating disease progression.