نبذة مختصرة : [Objective] To reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of soil water erosion in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in the rich and coarse sediment area from 2000 to 2020, and analyze its dynamic driving force. [Methods] Based on the RUSLE model, the annual soil water erosion modulus in the rich and coarse sediment area was calculated, and the variation characteristics of soil water erosion intensity in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed. The spatial-temporal characteristics of soil water erosion modulus were explored by using the Sen+MK trend analysis method combined with the Hurst index, and the factor probing in the parameter-optimal geographical detector with the interactive probing were used to quantify the explanatory power of six factors, namely average annual precipitation, elevation, slope, vegetation cover, land use/cover type, and soil type, on the spatial distribution of soil water erosion. [Results] (1) The area of moderate, intense, extremely intense and severe erosion in the rich and coarse sediment area decreased by 48.09%, 77.93%, 83.01%, and 36.13%, respectively, and the area of slight and mild erosion increased by 46.22% and 0.33%, respectively, in the five periods from 2000 to 2020. At the present stage, the sandy and coarse sandy area was dominated by slight and mild erosion, and the proportion of the two was 62.49% and 42.07% respectively. (2) The overall inter-annual change of soil water erosion modulus in the rich and coarse sediment area showed a fluctuating and significant downward trend, from 2 214.89 t/(km2·a) in 2000 to 1 169.44 t/(km2·a) in 2020. The spatial variation trend of soil water erosion modulus in the rich and coarse sediment area from 2000 to 2020 was mainly in a decreasing state, accounting for 76.13% of the total area, and would continue to be in a decreasing state in the future, with an area share of 62.50%. (3) The explanatory power of the interactions among the six factors was greater than that of single factor, and it was mainly manifested as nonlinear enhancement and double-factor enhancement; soil water erosion in the rich and coarse sediment area was dominated by precipitation and land use/cover in 2000—2005, and by vegetation cover and land use/cover in 2010—2020. [Conclusion] Soil water erosion condition in the rich and coarse sediment area will be improved continuously from 2000 to 2020; in the future, the soil water erosion modulus of 62.50% of the regions will continue to decline or decline in the future, but there is still a potential risk of increase in 20.44% of the area; the land use/cover pattern has changed by the project of returning farmland to forests and grassland, which made the soil water erosion in the rich and coarse sediment area. The driving force of soil water erosion in the rich and coarse sediment area changes dynamically; the slope factor needs to be fully considered when optimizing the land use/cover pattern for the prevention and control of soil water erosion in the rich and coarse sediment area in the future.
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