From Atmosphere to Health Outcomes: Analyzing Predictors of Respiratory Disease Mortality in Turkiye

ABSTRACT Background Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia are significant contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Identifying the predictors of mortality due to these diseases is crucial for effective public health interventions. Methods We conducted a longitudinal trajectory modeling using SAS TRAJ procedures on data from 81 provinces in Turkiye, categorizing death rates into two profiles for asthma and COPD and three for pneumonia. Environmental and socioeconomic factors were examined as potential predictors through logistic regression modeling. Results For asthma, none of the predictors met the false discovery rate (FDR) threshold for significance, suggesting the need for further research. In contrast, COPD predictors showed robust associations with mortality rates, particularly concerning environmental factors such as humidity and temperature. Pneumonia mortality was significantly associated with factors, including air pressure, humidity, temperature, alcohol use, and particulate matter. Conclusion The study reveals distinct mortality profiles for respiratory diseases and highlights the importance of environmental and lifestyle factors as predictors. These findings emphasize the need for targeted public health strategies and interventions to manage these diseases effectively.