Antecedent Conditions Mitigate Carbon Loss During Flash Drought Events

Abstract Flash droughts– the rapid drying of land and intensification of drought conditions—have devasting impacts to natural resources, food supplies, and the economy. Less is currently known about the drivers of flash droughts and their impact on landscape carbon losses. We leverage carbon and water cycle data from NASA OCO‐2 and Soil Moisture Active and Passive missions to quantify flash drought impacts on U.S. carbon exchange. On average, pre‐onset carbon uptake fully offsets post‐onset losses, creating a carbon neutral biosphere over a ±3 month period surrounding flash drought onset. This contrasts with ecosystem models, which underestimate pre‐onset uptake and overestimate post‐onset loss. Furthermore, spaceborne observations of solar induced fluorescence (SIF) provide a reliable indicator of flash droughts at lead times of 2–3 months, due to feedbacks between vegetation growth and soil water loss. This study is expected to improve understanding of flash drought impacts on carbon exchange, and facilitate flash drought early warning.