Minimising population health loss in times of scarce surgical capacity: a modelling study for surgical procedures performed in nonacademic hospitals

Abstract Background The burden of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a reduction of available health care capacity for regular care. To guide prioritisation of semielective surgery in times of scarcity, we previously developed a decision model to quantify the expected health loss due to delay of surgery, in an academic hospital setting. The aim of this study is to validate our decision model in a nonacademic setting and include additional elective surgical procedures. Methods In this study, we used the previously published three-state cohort state-transition model, to evaluate the health effects of surgery postponement for 28 surgical procedures commonly performed in nonacademic hospitals. Scientific literature and national registries yielded nearly all input parameters, except for the quality of life (QoL) estimates which were obtained from experts using the Delphi method. Two expert panels, one from a single nonacademic hospital and one from different nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands, were invited to estimate QoL weights. We compared estimated model results (disability adjusted life years (DALY)/month of surgical delay) based on the QoL estimates from the two panels by calculating the mean difference and the correlation between the ranks of the different surgical procedures. The eventual model was based on the combined QoL estimates from both panels. Results Pacemaker implantation was associated with the most DALY/month of surgical delay (0.054 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.025–0.103) and hemithyreoidectomy with the least DALY/month (0.006 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.002–0.009). The overall mean difference of QoL estimates between the two panels was 0.005 (95% CI -0.014–0.004). The correlation between ranks was 0.983 (p