A spatio-temporal analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract Wildfires in the Amazon significantly impact the forest structure and carbon cycle. Understanding the patterns of fire occurrence is crucial for effective management. A novel spatio-temporal point process framework was used to analyze changes in fire occurrence patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. A dynamic representation of a Log Gaussian Cox process was used to model the intensity function, which was decomposed into trend, seasonality, cycles, covariates, and spatial effects. The results show a marked decrease in long-term fire occurrence movements between the start of the sample and 2012, followed by an increase until the end of the sample, attributed to governance measures and market mechanisms. Spatial variability of fire occurrence rates in the Brazilian Amazon was successfully captured, with regions having more dry seasons experiencing higher fire occurrence rates. This analysis provides valuable insights into fire occurrence patterns in the Amazon region and the factors driving them.