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Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

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  • معلومة اضافية
    • Contributors:
      Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC); Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM); Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP); Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3); Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3); Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP); Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); SPACE - LATMOS; Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Deutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach (DWD); Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC); Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich); Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR); Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE); Wyss Academy for Nature; Climate and Environmental Physics Bern (CEP); Physikalisches Institut Bern; Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE)-Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE); Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT); Climate Service Center Hambourg (GERICS); Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS); Institute of Bio- and Geosciences Jülich (IBG); Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association; Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC); United Kingdom Met Office Exeter; Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus – Senftenberg (BTU); Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici Caserta (CMCC); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (ICTP); Instituto Dom Luiz; Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon = Université de Lisbonne (ULISBOA); Center for Environmental Systems Research Kassel (CESR); Universität Kassel Kassel; European Project: 776613,EUCP; European Project: 101081555,I4C
    • بيانات النشر:
      HAL CCSD
      American Geophysical Union
    • الموضوع:
      2024
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      International audience ; Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on a pan‐Alpine domain and of an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection‐permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.
    • Relation:
      info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/ Horizon‐2020 EUCP/EUCP; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101081555/EU/IMPETUS4CHANGE/I4C; hal-04524362; https://hal.science/hal-04524362; https://hal.science/hal-04524362/document; https://hal.science/hal-04524362/file/Caillaud_et_al_2024_GRL_%20Northwestern_Mediterranean_Heavy_Precipitation_Events_in_a_Warmer_Climate%20.pdf
    • الرقم المعرف:
      10.1029/2023gl105143
    • Rights:
      http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
    • الرقم المعرف:
      edsbas.FDB8E77A