Population genetic models of mutation rate evolution and adaptation and the impact of essential workers in the context of social distancing for epidemic control

The genetic variation among extant life forms reflects the outcomes of evolution. The fodder of evolution – germline mutations – is shaped by the interplay among evolutionary forces – notably natural selection and random genetic drift. In turn, these forces leave footprints recorded in the genetic variation of extant life forms. Characterizing these footprints to understand how evolution works is at the heart of population genetics. To this end, massive datasets of genetic variation have opened new avenues of research, around how mutation rates evolve for instance, and reinvigorated long standing questions in population genetics, notably about the genetic basis of adaptation. In turn, theoretical models of evolution inform what kind of footprints we expect evolution to leave behind in such data. Two theoretical models that investigate open questions in population genetics are described in this thesis. In Chapter 1, I consider the evolution of germline mutation rates, particularly on short evolutionary timescales, and ask if recently observed variation in mutation rates among human lineages could be explained by evolution at genetic modifiers of mutation rates. Genetic modifiers of mutation rates are expected to evolve under purifying selection: mutations at modifiers that increase mutation rates (“mutator alleles”) should be selected against, because they increase the burden of deleterious mutations in individuals who carry them. The frequencies of mutator alleles are also affected by mutation, genetic drift, and demographic processes. We model the evolution of mutator alleles under the interplay of these forces and characterize the dynamics at mutation rate modifiers as a function of the efficacy of selection acting on them. We find that modifiers under intermediate selection have the greatest contribution to variation in mutation rates between distantly related populations, but only variation at strongly selected modifiers turns over fast enough to explain variation in mutation rates among human lineages. We ...