Demographic Trends, Employment and Diversification in Brunei Darussalam: An International Perspective ; Tendances démographiques, emploi et diversification au Brunei Darussalam : une perspective internationale

International audience ; This chapter looks at the growing mismatch between the labour force and employment in Brunei Darussalam and the policies that could lead to a better fit. The discussion is conducted from an international perspective to better understand the problems common to countries abundant in natural resources and the specificities of Brunei. Section 4.2 starts with an analysis of the demographic trends which shows that the labour force will peak around 2030 and decline slowly afterwards. Unemployment will get less severe in the long term. However, the total dependency rate will become more acute, which raises the issue of financing the social cost of an ageing population. In Sect. 4.3, we describe the highly segmented job structure that has been shaped by the Bruneian growth regime and the social context it has created. We look at unemployment and underutilisation of the labour force and show that labour market segmentation is one of their root causes. Section 4.4 is dedicated to a second driver of unemployment: the lack of diversification of the economy, despite the long-standing efforts of the Brunei government. We conclude with a discussion of the policies that could be adopted to contribute to better diversification of the economy that turns its small size into the basis for a new sustainable growth regime. ; Ce chapitre examine l'inadéquation croissante entre la main-d'œuvre et l'emploi au Brunei Darussalam et les politiques qui pourraient conduire à une meilleure adéquation. La discussion est menée dans une perspective internationale pour mieux comprendre les problèmes communs aux pays abondants en ressources naturelles et les spécificités du Brunei. La section 4.2 commence par une analyse des tendances démographiques qui montre que la main-d'œuvre atteindra un pic vers 2030 et diminuera lentement par la suite. Le chômage deviendra moins grave à long terme. Cependant, le taux de dépendance totale deviendra plus aigu, ce qui soulève la question du financement du coût social d'une population ...