Progression of Geographic Atrophy in Age-related Macular Degeneration AREDS2 Report Number 16

PurposeTo analyze the prevalence, incidence, and clinical characteristics of eyes with geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including clinical and genetic factors affecting enlargement.DesignProspective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial.ParticipantsAge-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, aged 50-85 years.MethodsBaseline and annual stereoscopic color fundus photographs were evaluated for GA presence and area. Analyses included GA prevalence and incidence rates, Kaplan-Meier rates, mixed-model regression, and multivariable analysis of the square root of GA, area adjusted for covariates, including clinical/imaging characteristics and genotype.Main outcome measures(1) Presence or development of GA; (2) change in the square root of GA area over time.ResultsAt baseline, 517 eyes (6.2%) of 411 participants (9.8%) had pre-existing GA (without neovascular AMD), with the following characteristics: 33% central, 67% noncentral; and the following configurations: 36% small, 26% solid/unifocal, 24% multifocal, 9% horseshoe/ring, and 6% indeterminate. Of the remaining 6530 eyes at risk, 1099 eyes (17.3%) of 883 participants developed incident GA without prior neovascular disease during mean follow-up of 4.4 years. The Kaplan-Meier rate of incident GA was 19% of eyes at 5 years. In eyes with incident GA, 4-year risk of subsequent neovascular AMD was 29%. In eyes with incident noncentral GA, 4-year risk of central involvement was 57%. GA enlargement rate (following square root transformation) was similar in eyes with pre-existing GA (0.29 mm/year; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.30) and incident GA (0.28 mm/year; 0.27-0.30). In the combined group, GA enlargement was significantly faster with noncentrality, multifocality, intermediate baseline size, and bilateral GA (P < 0.0001 for interaction in each case) but not with AREDS2 treatment assignment (P= 0.33) or smoking status (P= 0.05). Enlargement was significantly faster with ARMS2 risk (P < 0.0001), C3 non-risk (P= ...