Forecasting using the particle model.

Predictions for the same four scenarios as in Fig 6 but using the particle model. In the top part of the plots, the blue curve and associated band is obtained as the average and 90% confidence interval when seeding the model 32 times. In the central part of the plots, we show with the blue curve R model ( t ) and with the orange dashed curve R integral ( t ). The rest of the notation is the same as that used in Fig 6 .