نبذة مختصرة : The risk of osteoporotic fracture is inversely related to bone mineral density (BMD), but how spatial BMD pattern influences fracture risk remains incompletely understood. This study used a pixel-level spatiotemporal atlas of proximal femoral BMD in 13,338 white European women (age 20–97 years) to quantitate age-related texture variation in BMD maps and generate a “reference” map of bone aging. We introduce a new index, called Densitometric Bone Age (DBA), as the age at which an individual site-specific BMD map (the proximal femur is studied here) best matches the median aging trajectory at that site in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE). The ability of DBA to predict incident hip fracture and hip fracture pattern over 5 years following baseline BMD was compared against conventional region-based BMD analysis in a subset of 11,899 women (age 45–97 years), for which follow-up fracture records exist. There were 208 subsequent incident hip fractures in the study populations (138 femoral necks [FNs], 52 trochanteric [TR], 18 sites unspecified). DBA had modestly better performance compared to the conventional FN-BMD, TR-BMD, and total hip (TOT)-BMD in identifying hip fractures measured as the area under the curve (AUC) using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis by 2% (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.5% to 3.5%), 3% (95% CI, 1.0% to 4.0%), and 1% (95% CI, 0.4% to 1.6%), respectively. Compared to FN-BMD T-score, DBA improved the ROC-AUC for predicting TR fractures by ~5% (95% CI, 1.1% to 9.8%) with similar performance in identifying FN fractures. Compared to TR-BMD T-score, DBA improved the ROC-AUC for the prediction of FN fractures by ~3% (95% CI, 1.1% to 4.9%), with similar performance in identifying TR fractures. Our findings suggest that DBA may provide a spatially sensitive measure of proximal femoral fragility that is not captured by FN-BMD or TR-BMD alone.
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