Validation in type 2 diabetes of a metabolomic signature of all-cause mortality

Context: Mortality in type 2 diabetes is twice that of the normoglycemic population. Unravelling biomarkers that identify high-risk patients for referral to the most aggressive and costly prevention strategies is needed. Objective: To validate in type 2 diabetes the association with all-cause mortality of a 14-metabolite score (14-MS) previously reported in the general population and whether this score can be used to improve well-established mortality prediction models. Methods: This is a sub-study consisting of 600 patients from the "Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate" (SUMMER) study in diabetes, a prospective multicentre investigation on all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Metabolic biomarkers were quantified from serum samples using high-throughput proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Results: In type 2 diabetes, the 14-MS showed a significant (p<0.0001) association with mortality, which was lower (p<0.0001) than that reported in the general population. This difference was mainly due to two metabolites (histidine and ratio of polyunsaturated fatty acids to total fatty acids) with an effect size that was significantly (p=0.01) lower in diabetes than in the general population. A parsimonious 12-MS (i.e. lacking the 2 metabolites mentioned above) improved patient discrimination and classification of two well-established mortality prediction models (p<0.0001 for all measures). Conclusions: The metabolomic signature of mortality in the general population is only partially effective in type 2 diabetes. Prediction markers developed and validated in the general population must be revalidated if they are to be used in patients with diabetes.