Precipitation timing and soil substrate drive phenology and fitness of Arabidopsis thaliana in a Mediterranean environment

In Mediterranean climates, the timing of seasonal rains determines germination, flowering phenology and fitness. As climate change alters seasonal precipitation patterns, it is important to ask how these changes will affect the phenology and fitness of plant populations. We addressed this question experimentally with the annual plant species Arabidopsis thaliana . In a first experiment, we manipulated the date of rainfall onset and recorded germination phenology on sand and soil substrates. In a second experiment, we manipulated germination date, growing season length and mid‐season drought to measure their effects on flowering time and fitness. Within each experiment, we manipulated seed dormancy and flowering time using multilocus near‐isogenic lines segregating strong and weak alleles of the seed dormancy gene DOG1 and the flowering time gene FRI . We synthesized germination phenology data from the first experiment with fitness functions from the second experiment to project population fitness under different seasonal rainfall scenarios. Germination phenology tracked rainfall onset but was slower and more variable on sand than on soil. Many seeds dispersed on sand in spring and summer delayed germination until the cooler temperatures of autumn. The high‐dormancy DOG1 allele also prevented immediate germination in spring and summer. Germination timing strongly affected plant fitness. Fecundity was highest in the October germination cohort and declined in spring germinants. The late flowering FRI allele had lower fecundity, especially in early fall and spring cohorts. Projections of population fitness revealed that: (1) Later onset of autumn rains will negatively affect population fitness. (2) Slow, variable germination on sand buffers populations against fitness impacts of variable spring and summer rainfall. (3) Seasonal selection favours high dormancy and early flowering genotypes in a Mediterranean climate with hot dry summers. The high‐dormancy DOG1 allele delayed germination of spring‐dispersed ...