Timing and Predictors of Subspecialty Career Choice Among Internal Medicine Residents: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Internal medicine residents face numerous career options after residency training. Little is known about when residents make their final career choice. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the timing and predictive factors of final career choices among internal medicine residents at graduation, including demographics, pre-residency career preferences, and rotation scheduling. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of graduates of an academic internal medicine residency program from 2014 to 2017. Main measures included demographics, rotation schedules, and self-reported career choices for residents at 5 time points: recruitment day, immediately after Match Day, end of postgraduate year 1 (PGY-1), end of PGY-2, and at graduation. RESULTS: Of the 138 residents eligible for the study, 5 were excluded based on participation in a fast-track program for an Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education subspecialty fellowship. Among the remaining 133 residents, 48 (36%) pursued general internal medicine fields and 78 (59%) pursued fellowship training. Career choices from recruitment day, Match Day, and PGY-1 were only weakly predictive of the career choice. Many choices demonstrated low concordance throughout training, and general medicine fields (primary care, hospital medicine) were frequently not decided until after PGY-2. Early clinical exposure to subspecialty rotations did not predict final career choice. CONCLUSIONS: Early career choices before and during residency training may have low predictability toward final career choices upon graduation in internal medicine. These choices may continue to have low predictability beyond PGY-2 for many specialties. Early clinical exposure may not predict final career choice for subspecialties.