A Casualty Risk Analysis for Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Operations Over Inhabited Areas

This paper discusses the need for informed decision making with respect to the management of the risks Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) operations present to people and property on the ground. In the absence of a wealth of experience in the hazards of UAS operations, an understanding of the risks can be gained through a formal risk analysis. This paper proposes the development of new risk analysis tools as a means for ensuring risk-informed decision making. The paper provides an introduction to the risk management of UAS operations over inhabited areas and presents an argument which establishes the need for an objective understanding of the risks. The development of formal risk analysis tools is then discussed. A simple casualty expectation model is presented and is applied to the example case-study scenario of a generic Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) UAS on approach to Royal Australia Air Force (RAAF) Base Edinburgh. A brief evaluation of the results from the analysis is provided; illustrating how a formal risk analysis can be used to inform practical decision making. The paper concludes by providing a summary on the direction of the program of research and the key points made.