Open Defecation Resurgence in Tanzania? Early Warning Signals From the Box-jenkins Approach

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Tanzania from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the Q series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model.