Evidence-based Policymaking? Revisiting the 'Known,' the Assumed and the Promoted in New Social Policy Development Policy

Supported by a virtual plethora of impact evaluations, conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been widely promoted for their ability to simultaneously pursue short-term poverty alleviation through income support and long-term poverty reduction through human capital investments. In particular, their claim to fame lies in their perceived capacity to enable a break in intergenerational transmission of poverty. This study presents an inquiry into such capacities. First, it filters that which is ‘known’ from that which remains assumed through a synthesis of systematic reviews. The inquiry corroborates existing research and finds that evidence concerning CCTs’ impact pertains almost exclusively to short-term effects from a handful of localized cases, providing scarce information on the programs’ alleged long-term capabilities. That is, existing evidence lacks any demonstrated effects on long-term poverty reduction and human capital enhancement – the two overriding goals of the programs. More importantly, it contributes to existing research and problematizes CCTs’ promoted long-term impact by further qualifying the ‘known’ and by analyzing the empirical foundations of the programs’ implicit assumptions. Findings of largely untested theoretical assumptions pertaining to the human capital – social mobility nexus further challenge the basis for CCTs’ promoted capacity to enable a break in intergenerational transmission of poverty. These findings are deemed particularly relevant to developing countries in Africa and Asia and their efforts to adequately incorporate CCTs into poverty reduction strategies and policies.