Tony Blair and the UK referendum on the European Union’s constitutional treaty

The author examines the British government’s decision to put the European Union’s constitutional treaty to a referendum of the British people and the risks this entails for its eventual ratification. Tony Blair’s announcement in April that parliamentary approval of the constitutional treaty will be followed by a referendum was an abrupt, opportunist and wholly unexpected volte-face. The referendum is also a very high risk decision because euro-sceptic forces have grown greatly in Britain since 1973, when the country joined the European Economic Community. Assuming EU leaders can overcome their differences on the constitutional text, securing a “yes” vote in Britain will require a vigorous campaign in support of the treaty. Here the auguries are not good: there was no attempt by the government to sell positively Britain’s negotiating achievements in the Convention. Blair risks being remembered as a pro-European British prime minister who not only failed to take Britain into the euro but jeopardised the eventual entry into force of the EU’s constitution.