Effect of universal test and treat on retention and mortality among people living with HIV-infection in Uganda: An interrupted time series analysis

Background: Few studies have analysed the effect of HIV universal test and treat (UTT) on retention and mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in routine care. We examined six-month retention and mortality at 11 health facilities (HFs) run by a large NGO, The AIDS Support Organisation (TASO), before and after UTT. Methods: We used a quasi-experimental study using patient data extracted from 11 TASO HFs. Two periods, one before UTT (2015–2016) and the other during UTT (2017–2018) were compared. The primary outcome was six-month retention defined as the proportion of PLHIV who were alive and in care at six months from enrolment. The secondary outcome was six-month mortality defined as the proportion of PLHIV who died within six months from enrolment. We performed an interrupted time series analysis using graphical aids to study trends in six-month retention and mortality and a segmented regression to evaluate the effect of UTT. We used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for facility-level clustering. Results: Of the 20,171 PLHIV registered between 2015 and 2018 and included in the analysis, 12,757 (63.2%) were enrolled during the UTT period. 5256/7414 (70.9%) of the pre-UTT period compared to 12239/12757 (95.9%) of the UTT were initiated on ART treatment with 6 months from enrolment. The median time from enrolment to initiating ART was 14 (interquartile range (IQR): 0–31) days for the pre-UTT compared to 0 (IQR: 0–0) days for the UTT period. The median age at enrolment was 32.5 years for the pre-UTT and 35.0 years for the UTT period. Overall, the six-month retention just after scale-up of UTT, increased by 9.2 percentage points (p = 0.002) from the baseline value of 82.6% (95% CI: 77.6%-87.5%) but it eventually decreased at a rate 1.0 percentage point (p = 0.014) for cohorts recruited each month after UTT. The baseline six-month mortality was 3.3% (95% CI: 2.4%-4.2%) and this decreased by 1.6 percentage points (p = 0.003) immediately after UTT. The ...