Forecasting and planning for special events in the pulp and paper supply chains

Due to global warming, flood is an increasing threat to companies operating in the pulp and paper industry. The impact of this threat needs to be managed. We deploy a qualitative investigation into how paper manufacturers can forecast and mitigate the impact of special events, most notably floods, across their supply chains. A grounded theory approach using semi-structured interviews held with supply chain consultants in three stages allowed for topic categories emerging during previous interviews to be explored. Analysis of these interviews uncovered tactics unique to the pulp and paper industry. The findings are three-fold. First, paper manufacturers should focus on basic forecasting methods which they are capable of, such as subscribing to flood warnings, rather than poorly executing advance machine learning forecasts. Second, planning is of equal importance to forecasting: integrated business planning should guide the process. Third, business execution should involve a proactive approach to decision-making which trusts data and has people that nurture and drive the process.