Using Playlist Placements and Social Media Metrics to Predict Spotify Streaming Success

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Driven Marketing, specialization in Marketing Intelligence ; In recent years, music streaming platforms such as Spotify have revolutionized the music industry, changing how audiences consume and discover music and how artists and record labels promote and monetize their work. Spotify uses sophisticated algorithms to provide personalized listening experiences and features a variety of playlists curated by either Spotify’s editorial team or independent curators. This thesis explores the dynamics influencing music streaming success on Spotify in the first month of a track's release, focusing on the roles of playlist placements and social media presence. By analyzing data from Chartmetric on tracks released between March and December 2022, this study employs a Random Forest model to predict the number ofstreams a track gets in the first month. Key predictors include first-week stream count, independent and editorial playlist placements, social media metrics and Spotify-specific metrics. The results indicate that the number of streams in the first week is the most significant predictor of month-long streaming success, emphasizing the importance of early promotional strategies. Both independent and editorial playlist placements emerged as crucial factors: the count and reach of the playlists a track is included in significant impact streaming numbers. Social media metrics, particularly those related to TikTok, were also influential, though to a lesser extent. Cross-validation confirmed the model'srobustness, yielding a mean R-squared value of 0.9251 and a low standard deviation of 0.0151. Residual analysis and actual versus predicted plots further validated the model’s accuracy. This thesis provides a deeper understanding of the combined effects of playlist placements and social media presence on streaming success. It offers valuable insights for artists, record labels and industry professionals seeking to optimize their ...