Segurança pública e homicídios intencionais: fatores socioeconômicos e políticas públicas no Espírito Santo (1980-2022)

Public Safety and Intentional Homicides: Socioeconomic Factors and Public Policies in Espírito Santo (1980-2022) This study aims to explain the rates of intentional homicides in the state of Espírito Santo between 1980 and 2022 as a function of structural determinants (socioeconomic and sociodemographic) and public security and social support policies. We used a mixed method, combining historical and documentary analysis of discourses with the construction of multivariate quantitative models, seeking to understand the agenda and formulation of public security policies and to measure the multiple factors of violence, including the government programs themselves. We found that the state government has been prolific in drawing up public safety programs, demonstrating the persistent centrality of the area on the government agenda, but has faced difficulties of governance and governability in implementation, hindering their efficiency. Income inequality and access to firearms contributed to an increase in intentional homicides, while public spending on social support and public safety had no relevant impact, despite significant and modest variations between the effects of state public safety programs. ; Este estudio tiene como objetivo explicar las tasas de homicidio intencional en el Estado de Espírito Santo, entre 1980 y 2022, en función de determinantes estructurales (socioeconómicos y sociodemográficos) y de políticas de seguridad pública y apoyo social. Empleamos un método mixto, que combina el análisis histórico y cualitativo de discursos con la construcción de modelos cuantitativos multivariados, buscando comprender la agenda y formulación de políticas de seguridad pública y medir los múltiples factores de la violencia, incluidos los propios programas de gobierno. Descubrimos que el gobierno estatal fue prolífico en el desarrollo de programas de seguridad pública, lo que demuestra la persistente centralidad del área en la agenda del gobierno, pero enfrentó dificultades de gobernanza y gobernabilidad en su ...