نبذة مختصرة : The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12Wm-2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO2, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect. ; Peer reviewed
Relation: We acknowledge support from NERC (NE/H524673/1, NE/J004723/1, NE/G015015/1, NE/K015966/1), EU Horizon 2020 (grant agreement numbers 641816 and 654109), EPSRC (EP/I014721/1), ERC (227463-ATMNUCLE) and the United Bank of Carbon (UBoC). This work used ARC1 and ARC2, part of the High Performance Computing Facilities at the University of Leeds, UK, as well as the ARCHER UK National Super-computing Service. Aerosol measurements at Hyytiala were supported by the Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence (1118615 & 1127372), and the Cryosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate (CRAICC) programme. Aerosol measurements in the Amazon were supported by Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP-AEROCLIMA 08/58100-2), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico (CNPq) and European Integrated FP6 project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI-34684, 036833-2), under the scope of LBA experiment; we thank INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia) for the coordination work of the LBA Experiment.; Scott , C E , Monks , S A , Spracklen , D V , Arnold , S R , Forster , P M , Rap , A , Äijälä , M , Artaxo , P , Carslaw , K S , Chipperfield , M P , Ehn , M , Gilardoni , S , Heikkinen , L , Kulmala , M , Petäjä , T , Reddington , C L S , Rizzo , L V , Swietlicki , E , Vignati , E & Wilson , C 2018 , ' Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation ' , Nature Communications , vol. 9 , 157 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02412-4; ORCID: /0000-0001-7837-967X/work/41140287; ORCID: /0000-0002-1881-9044/work/102822832; 85040453018; dcc39892-796a-424a-af1a-9411b7888d99; http://hdl.handle.net/10138/231558; 000419947200004
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