Modeling Containerized Waste Pattern for New York City Housing Authority

This project delivers a waste projection tool to assist the Department of Waste Management and Pest Control (WMPC) at the New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) to improve its service efficiency, maintain the campus environment and address the challenges of climate change. To develop this tool, 2017 to 2021 monthly containerized waste data for 127 NYCHA sites is combined with seasonality, built environment characteristics, socio-demographics, and pandemic data to build a Random Forest Regression model that achieves a 0.92 R2 score for prediction. Semi-structured interviews with sustainability professionals at NYCHA and the New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) inform the design and implementation of the modeling methodology. This study derives the finding that population, income, temperature, and residential density are key indicators of residential waste generation and that recycling programs should be implemented on NYCHA campuses to advance the goals outlined in the Authority’s Sustainability Agenda and in the Authority’s agreement with the City and the federal government. This study recommends that the Authority design the recycling programs from a sustainable development perspective to focus on resident education, job provision, and carbon footprint reduction.