Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior

Intertemporal choice experiments are increasingly implemented to make inference about discounting and marginal utility, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a consumption smoothing decision with large stakes — around 10% of annual income. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are significantly correlated with experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of such experimentally elicited measures for a large-stakes decision. ; © 2022 Elsevier B.V. Received 16 September 2020, Revised 7 February 2022, Accepted 10 February 2022, Available online 27 February 2022, Version of Record 27 February 2022. We thank Michaela Pagel for helpful comments and two anonymous referees who also provided helpful recommendations that lead to an important revision and improvement of the paper. Diego Aycinena is grateful for the financial support provided by Fundación Capital and the program "Inclusión productiva y social: programas y políticas para la promoción de una economía formal", #60185, which conforms the Alianza EFI - Economía Formal Inclusiva, under the Contingent Recovery Contract No. FP44842-220-2018. We are grateful to Pablo Pastor, Alvaro Garcia and the field implementation team. Betzy Sandoval provided excellent research assistance, including field supervision, data handling and support with logistics and design implementation. Aycinena notes financial support from Fundacion Capital on title page. "Inclusión productiva y social: programas y políticas para la promoción de una economía formal", #60185, an initiative of the Alianza EFI – Economía Formal Inclusiva, under the Contingent Recovery Contract No. FP44842-220-2018. ; Submitted - Intertemporal_Choice_Experiments_and_Large-Stakes_Aycinena.pdf Supplemental Material - ...